Wednesday 17 April 2013

Markets Finally Appear to be Correcting

After a substantial runup since the intermediate bottom back in November 2012 the equity markets appear to be finally correcting. The commodity markets have been hit hard. Oil and gold are down sharply today. Many of the stocks I follow (see TEX, MTW and other industrials) in the US have been up more than 25% in the past 5 months. A correction is long overdue. According to Jeff Saut of Raymond James in his Monday commentary this buying stampede is 70 sessions long and apparently he not seen anything like it in 50 years. I see only a modest correction and not a full blown bear market ( at least in the US). The Canadian markets are much more difficult to assess. Commodity prices are globally driven and they appear to heading down. The TMX has not gone anywhere in 1 1/2 years since peaking at over 14,000 back in Q2 2011. I see no change in this trend.

I did not sell anything today. A few days I bought AAPL at about $436 average price. I think that at low $400 the stock is a buy. The world is not coming to an end for AAPL. Yes, the margins are declining and there is demand weakness. However, with over $130B in cash the stock seems to offer good value.

P.S. I invested in Apple which seems to violate my "do not invest in high tech" principle. Guilty as charged. I do not really consider Apple a "high-tech" company. To my thinking it is more of a gadget company (ie.consumer product discretionary) which uses higher technology.

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